The Obama administration, already charged with providing political cover for BP in the Gulf of Mexico mega-oil disaster, is also charged with allowing BP to renege on agreements between the firm, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the state of Indiana to prevent pollution of Lake Michigan from the firm’s Whiting, Indiana refinery near Hammond.

In 2007, the EPA, under the Bush administration, said it was powerless to stop BP from dumping more toxic waste into Lake Michigan from its expanded refinery that was processing increased amounts of heavy crude oil from Canada.

However, the EPA did urge BP to mitigate the increased pollution of solid waste and ammonia by taking other proactive steps to limit environmental damage, including financing projects for other plants along the Grand Calumet River and Lake Michigan to reduce their pollution and other clean-up and run-off water-filtering projects.

Environmental groups opposed the EPA permit to expand its Lake Michigan refining operations. BP’s position was bolstered by federal and state court decisions that shot down the suits from the environmental groups. BP also took out newspaper advertisements and paid Internet bloggers to defend the refinery’s expansion. The payment of money to bloggers by BP is also evident in the number of pro-BP postings on the web concerning the mega-oil disaster.

The Obama administration, including EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, has permitted BP to violate the promises it made to the state and federal courts that steps would be taken to mitigate the effects of increased Lake Michigan pollution.

Informed sources in Chicago have told WMR that what is occurring in the Gulf of Mexico could very well happen to Lake Michigan when considering that BP not only continues to pollute the lake at higher rates but also has a record of safety and environmental infractions at the expanded Indiana refinery.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/BP-Gets-Pass-From-Obama-Administration-To-Potentially-Pollute-Lake-Michigan.html

By the Wayne Madsen for Oilprice.com who offer detailed analysis on Crude oil, Natural Gas, Geopolitics, Gold and most other Commodities. They also provide free political and economic intelligence to help investors gain a greater understanding of world events and the impact they have on certain regions and sectors. Visit: http://www.oilprice.com

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The recent Shanghai Surprise has been breaking that potential bullish triangle I outlined several weeks ago with a downside break of 2900. Subscribers to TheMarketTrendForecast.Com may recall that was my line in the sand for the SSEC index to remain bullish. With the break of that possible bull triangle, the SSEC index has fallen down to near 2500. Everyone on CNBC is bearish on the Chinese Indexes now, and I can’t find any bulls for that country either. They were everywhere several months ago, and now, nowhere to be found.

What I’m seeing as a possible intermediate “BULLISH VIEW” is that the Shanghai Index is completing what is known as a “3-3-5? wave pattern. This means it’s an A B C zig zag to the downside, which works off the prior bull move from 1600-3400. So far this correction has re-traced a bit over 50% of that bull move, which would be typical and would kick everyone off the bull.

A 3-3-5 correction unfolds in a series of wave patterns. 3 waves down, 3 waves up, and then 5 waves down to complete. I outline this potential pattern below in the SSEC chart. This does not mean I will be right, merely that this is a very valid and normal corrective pattern after a massive bull wave up. The index is extremely oversold as well on traditional indicators, which I use to overlap my Elliott Wave views.

This forecast could mean some Chinese stocks are super cheap here, and it will be fun to watch the action from here. The index could drop to about the 2300 range and still validate this bottoming pattern. That means there could still be another 8% or so drop from here, but aggressive investors would start scaling into long positions over a few weeks. Indeed it was January of 2009 when I started recommending small cap indexes and mutual funds, but that index didn’t bottom until early March of course. Scaling in was wise though, as the TNA 3x ETF soared from 11 to 60 during the bull phase up. I started buying at 28 and down to 11, so my average was around 20 or so.

Worth watching anyways.

David Banister - www.ActiveTradingPartners.com

—

Dave Banister is the Chief Investment Strategist and commentator for ActiveTradingPartners.com. David has written numerous market forecast articles on various sites (SafeHaven.Com, 321Gold.com, Gold-Eagle.com, TheStreet.Com etc. ) that have proven to be extremely accurate at major junctures. You can read more at www.activetradingpartners.com

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It has been an interesting week in the market as stocks and commodities push to extreme support levels. Below I have posted some charts showing where the market is currently trading at and what I think is likely to unfold.

Gold Futures - 4 Hour Candle Stick Chart

The price of Gold is testing a key support level. I figure we will see gold try to stabilize over the next week or so as it digests the recent drop in value then start to head back up.

US Dollar Index - 60 Minute Candle Stick Chart

The US Dollar and gold have been moving together the past few weeks as more countries pop up on the radar for serious financial issues. This is helping to boost both the US Dollar and gold as investors around the world starting buying what seems to be safety. The dollar has had a sizable pullback and is now testing a key support level.

This could be the start of a possible Head & Shoulders pattern forming which means the dollar rally could be nearing maturity in the next couple weeks.

Crude Oil Futures - Daily Trading Chart

Oil has been under serious selling pressure because of the rising USD. It has now dropped to a key support level and is starting to look very interesting. If the US Dollar bounces in the next week or two it will keep downward pressure on oil. I think this bottom is going to be a process not a one day event.

SP500 - Daily Trading Chart

Stocks have been under dropping like flies the past few weeks and shorting the SP500 last week at 1170 has played out very nicely for members. The broad market is giving me mixed signals and when I am unsure of a trade I stand on the sidelines. It’s always better to sit in cash and watch things stabilize than it is to watch your hard earned money evaporate. We could see a wave of panic selling in the stock indexes testing the previous lows so be cautious.

Mid-Week Stock & Commodity Trading Report Conclusion:

In short, I feel gold and the dollar will bounce in the coming days from their support levels. This will keep pressure on oil & the SP500 holding them down near support. Once the US Dollar forms a possible right shoulder we will most likely see them pop and rally.

We are still 7 trading days away from a cycle low on the broad market making this scenario very likely to play out. At the moment I am getting a lot of mixed signals and during times like this I prefer to stay in cash because volatility will rise and it is easy to get shaken out of trades.

If you would like to get my Real-Time Trading Signals & Setups checkout my services at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen

—

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. For 6 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Please visit my website for more information.

http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

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In an exclusive for Oilprice.com, the Wayne Madsen Report (WMR) has learned from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sources that U.S. Navy submarines deployed to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean off the Florida coast have detected what amounts to a frozen oil blob from the oil geyser at the destroyed Deep Horizon off-shore oil rig south of Louisiana. The Navy submarines have trained video cameras on the moving blob, which remains frozen at depths of between 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Because the oil blob is heavier than water, it remains frozen at current depths.

FEMA and Corps of Engineers employees are upset that the White House and the Pentagon remain tight-lipped and in cover-up mode about the images of the massive and fast-moving frozen coagulated oil blob that is being imaged by Navy submarines that are tracking its movement. The sources point out that BP and the White House conspired to withhold videos from BP-contracted submersibles that showed the oil geyser that was spewing oil from the chasm underneath the datum of the Deep Horizon at rates far exceeding originally reported amounts. We have learned that it was largely WMR’s scoop on the existence of the BP videos that forced the company and its White House patrons to finally agree to the release of the video footage.

The White House is officially stating that it does not know where the officially reported 10 miles long by 3 miles wide “plume” is actually located or in what direction it is heading. However, WMR’s sources claim the White House is getting real-time reports from Navy submarines as to the blob’s location. We have learned that the blob is transiting the Florida Straits between Florida and Cuba, propelled by the Gulf’s Loop Current, and that parts of it that is encountering warmer waters are breaking off into smaller tar balls that are now washing ashore in the environmentally-sensitive Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas.

Corps of Engineers and FEMA officials are also livid about the cover-up of the extent of the oil damage being promulgated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its marine research vessel in the Gulf, RV Pelican. NOAA stands accused by the aforementioned agencies of acting as a virtual public relations arm for BP. NOAA is a component of the business-oriented Department of Commerce.

Similarly, the Coast Guard, which takes its orders from the cover-up operatives at the Homeland Security Department, is denying the tar balls washing up on the Florida Keys are from the oil mass. WMR has been told the Coast Guard is lying in order to protect the Obama administration, which has thoroughly failed in its response to the disaster. The White House’s only concern is trying to limit political damage to its image in the electorally-important state of Florida while the Pentagon has spent between $25 and $30 billion on oil spill operations in the Gulf and the Atlantic to date.

WMR sources also report that the oil mass has resulted in dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico that have cut off oxygen and killed massive numbers of marine creatures and plant life. Seafood wholesalers from the Gulf Coast to New Jersey and New York have been told that the supply of shrimp, oysters, and other seafood from the Gulf is severely in short supply and that they can expect a possible total cut-off as the situation worsens. The shortage will also affect the supply of seafood, especially shrimp, to national seafood restaurant chains like Red Lobster and Long John Silver’s.

There is also evidence that BP, Halliburton, and Transocean sank a drill to a depth of 35,000 feet at the Deep Horizon site some six months ago without the required permits from the federal government. WMR has learned from U.S. government sources that the drilling at 35,000 feet caused a major catastrophic event that required the firms’ oil rig personnel to quickly pull up the drill and close the drill hole.

However, the Deep Horizon re-sank the drill some six months after the unspecified “catastrophe,” resulting in another, more destructive chain of events following the explosion that destroyed the rig, killing eleven workers. When the Deep Horizon blew up, WMR has been told it also “blew down,” cracking the the sub-seabed pipe that may have been re-drilled to a depth of between 25,000 to 30,000 feet, again, without a government permit.

Government sources also report that BP is intent on recovering as much oil as possible from the undersea geyser rather than simply plugging and capping the well, which would then place it off-limits to further drilling. The Corps of Engineers reports that BP is playing a game with Obama, convincing him of the feasibility of “shooting junk” into the subterranean pipe, which would stop up the pipe with a manufactured chemical compound called “MUD.” However, WMR has been informed that BP actually intends to shoot cement into the pipe in an attempt to cap the well with the later intention of digging a trench for side drilling from the pipe to recover as much oil as possible. The technology that would be employed by BP is the same technology that was used by Kuwait to conduct slant drilling of Iraq’s Rumallah oil field — an event that helped trigger Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

Corps of Engineers and FEMA sources also give a failing grade to both Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, who stands accused of being woefully incompetent in handling the disaster, and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar. Government sources say both secretaries should immediately step down or be fired.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Environment/Oil-Spills/White-House-Covers-Up-Menacing-Oil-Blob.html

By the Wayne Madsen Report for Oilprice.com who offer detailed analysis on Crude oil, Natural Gas, Geopolitics, Gold and most other Commodities. They also provide free political and economic intelligence to help investors gain a greater understanding of world events and the impact they have on certain regions and sectors. Visit: http://www.oilprice.com

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The plunge in oil prices in the wake of the euro crisis has OPEC worried.

Qatar oil minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah emerged as an unofficial spokesman for the oil cartel over the weekend in a series of news agency reports from the Gulf that signaled the group’s concern.On Monday, as oil futures briefly dipped below $70 a barrel after settling Friday at $71.71, Al Attiyah told reporters that a price below $70 a barrel was too low for companies to maintain investment and expand capacity. Such investment is crucial to avoid a supply shortage in the future, Al Attiyah said.

He reiterated that following the lead of Saudi King Abdullah’s pronouncement about a “fair” oil price in December, OPEC officials want to see a price between $70 and $80 a barrel.

At another industry event on Saturday, Al Attiyah told news agencies that the drop in oil prices was “psychological” and not based on fundamentals. He said the crisis concerning Greece and the euro was causing the drop and speculation about “contagion” would continue to depress oil prices.”The whole world then started to ask the question about if it will move to other countries,” the Qatar minister said, according to agency reports. “We’re watching, with nervousness.”Qatar, one of the world’s leading producers of natural gas, is a relatively small oil producer, but is closely allied with the main Gulf producers - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates.Concern about the future of the joint European currency continued to batter financial and commodity markets on Monday, as prices fell and the euro declined further against the dollar and other currencies.

At a meeting of the Arab OPEC members earlier this month, Kuwaiti oil minister Ahmad Abdullah Al-Sabah said a price below $65 a barrel would “ring a bell” for the oil cartel and could prompt them to hold an emergency meeting ahead of the next scheduled meeting Oct. 14.

OPEC could react to a low price by cutting production, as it did in 2008 when the financial crisis lowered demand and sent oil prices plunging.Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Psychological-Plunge-in-Oil-Prices-Makes-OPEC-Nervous-Official-Says.html

By. Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com who offer detailed analysis on Crude oil, Natural Gas, Geopolitics, Gold and most other Commodities. They also provide free political and economic intelligence to help investors gain a greater understanding of world events and the impact they have on certain regions and sectors. Visit: http://www.oilprice.com

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Fibonacci Retracements - A Precision Trading Strategy

Deciding on a topic for this article, I reviewed the top ranked articles in T2W and found some fantastic material. I did not however find inspiration for a new article idea that readers may like. Perhaps strangely, I then looked at the lowest rated articles. I noticed that two of them discussed Fibonacci which both surprised and intrigued me. It was not necessarily that people did not like Fib, just that perhaps it had not been explained well enough for their liking. I am a huge Fibonacci fan and it plays a big part in my trading so the following will explain how I use it to trade successfully.

While this strategy can be applied to almost any market, I will focus on the Dow Jones e-mini future, with all screenshots been the mini-Dow, (symbol YM) 1 minute charts.

Fibonacci - Is it really so subjective?

No! Not once you know how to use it correctly. There is a precise place where lines should be drawn and many places where they should not be drawn. I have seen them drawn in crazy places by people who claim that Fib does not work. There are also precise retracement levels that you should look to enter at, levels that you should use as a guide only and levels that will help you place stops.

What I am teaching is not from a book and it’s not scientific (not that I know of anyway). It is simply the way that I have come to use Fibonacci retracements after many hours of screen time and it has added significantly to my trading ability after learning how to use it this way. I truly hope that it will assist you with your trading in a positive manner.

This article aims to dispel some of the myths surrounding Fib by showing how it can be used to trade the markets profitably & precisely, not subjectively as so many people seem to think.

You will learn:

• How fib is used objectively every time we draw a line

• Exactly where to draw lines from (Start point)

• Exactly where to draw lines too (End point)

• Which of the Fibonacci retracement levels should be used as entry points and which should be used as guide to direction only or a stop loss

• A trading strategy with precise entry, stop loss and targets

What is a Fibonacci retracement?

After a move up or down in the market, at some point the market will start to ‘pull back’ or ‘retrace’. As the market starts to retrace, traders draw a Fibonacci line in the direction of the trend to see where the market might retrace too. This results in a series of lines drawn horizontally across the chart that the price may be supported or resisted at if price reaches them (See Figure 1). Common retracement levels are 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6%. This means that after a move in either direction, equalling 100%, the retracements may be 38.2% or 50% or so on, back in the opposite direction of the 100% move. I.e. If the full move reversed then this would be a 100% retracement.

Figure 1 - Fibonacci Retracement Ratios

The problem is that as the price retraces, there can be five or more retracement levels of possible support/resistance. How do you know which level the market is most likely to turn at? More importantly, where is a good place for you to enter a trade? The answer is you don’t know yet; there is no high probability trade with only this amount of analysis.

This has led a lot of people to say that Fib is subjective and they argue the point valiantly. Well the truth is, it is subjective! But only for those people who don’t have a precise strategy for how to use it. If you cannot pinpoint a trade with precision, i.e. the exact retracement level that you would like to buy or sell at, then you do not have a trading strategy. All you have is a very subjective and virtually useless (IMHO) trading tool.

So, lets cover how you can pinpoint the precise Fib retracement level that has the highest probability of the market turning. To understand the full trading strategy you must first understand trends at the basic level.

Trend Analysis

Simple trend analysis is perhaps the most straightforward, most important and yet most over-looked technical tool at our disposal. Time and time again I meet traders who skip over it because they think higher highs and higher lows it is ‘too simple’. They think the advanced stuff (such as Fibonacci) is what will make them more money. This could not be further from the truth! Without a grasp of the basics, the advanced stuff never quite makes sense either. Correct trend analysis is, in my opinion, the most important thing that a trader can ever understand. It is also necessary for drawing Fib lines correctly (no wonder so many people think Fib is subjective when so many don’t yet understand trends).

An uptrend is:

• A series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). See Figure 2. An uptrend is over when this trend reverses. I.e. The price makes either a:

• Lower high (Figure 2 Point A) and/or;

• Lower Low (Figure 2 point B)

Figure 2 - Uptrend

A downtrend is:

• A series of lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH). See Figure 3. A downtrend is over when this trend reverses. I.e. The price makes either a:

• Higher High (Figure 3 Point A) and/or;

• Higher Low (Figure 3 point B)

Figure 3 - Downtrend

Where the Fib line should Start from

Firstly, you should only draw a Fib retracement level when there is a trend. All trends have to retrace in order for the above definitions to be true i.e. in an uptrend price has to pullback from a HH to make a HL. You are always looking for a retracement of the current trend which ensures you have momentum behind the move. If there is no clear trend then by using Fib retracements you are swimming against the tide even before you even begin. Fib does not work in ranging markets! The nature of a ranging market is that it will range between two levels, hence pulling back around 100% of each prior move.

Now that you are trading with the trend, you should start your Fib line from a HL within an uptrend or a LH within a downtrend. Refer back to Figure 2. Each HL was a possible start point for your Fib line. You should draw it upwards in the direction of the trend. Equally, in Figure 3, each LH was a place to start a line from and draw downward in the direction of the trend.

The most important place to start from is:

• The most recent low within a current up-trend.

• The most recent high within a current down-trend

Remember the above points as they are the most crucial steps in applying Fib correctly. This will ensure that you are only looking for retracements of the current trend in the timeframe you are trading. For example, look at figure 3. We have now reversed the downtrend and are uptrending (made a HH & HL) so there is no point drawing a Fib line downwards any longer. In fact, if you were to draw a line on this chart right now, the only place to do it would be with the uptrend from the last LL up to point A.

Where the Fib line should End

This is the part where people most often get it wrong. There are highs and lows all over the chart so which one do you use? The answer is in fact very simple: The line should always end at the extreme i.e.:

• The most recent HH within an uptrend or;

• The most recent LL within a downtrend

Hence, if there is no trend there is no Fib retracement to be drawn. Also, once a new high or low has been made (a new extreme) new fib lines need to be redrawn, your old ones are now completely invalidated as you would no longer be looking at a retracement of the current trend. Look at Figure 4 for an example. You MUST draw your fib line as shown from point D (the most recent high) down to point E (the most recent low or the extreme). There is no point drawing a line from C down to X2 any longer. X2 was a valid low when it was the extreme, however now a new low has been made at E and this is the ONLY point where Fib Lines should end.

Figure 4

To confirm:

To confirm: Short term move

• Within an UP trend, you MUST always draw your Fib line starting from the most recent low and finishing at the most recent high

• Within a DOWN trend, you MUST always draw your Fib line starting from the most recent high and finishing at the most recent low

• Both of the above are what I refer to as the ‘Short-term Move’

Long term move

All Fib lines must ‘end’ at the same point, you can however ’start’ from different points, drawing to the same end point. This is what I will refer to as the long-term move. This is how we locate clusters and is also how we start to build a high probability entry point.

Locating clusters of Support and resistance

Again looking at Figure 4, we know that the line has to be drawn from D down to E as this makes sure we are only trading a pullback of the current trend. This however leaves us with four potential retracement levels. To define a potential entry point, we must look to see if any Fib retracements cluster at the same level. To do this, you must use a different start point for your Fib line and finish at the same end point. See Figure 5 which shows the same chart as Figure 4, however this time we are drawing a second Fib line from a different start point, C, and finishing at the same end point, E. Note that the 38.2% for the larger move down (C to E) overlaps with the 50% of the short term move (D to E). This is what is referred to as a Fib cluster and become a much higher probability turning point if the price reaches there.

Figure 5

The same is very true in an uptrend. Refer to figure 6 which shows a cluster of the short term 50% and longer term 38.2%. See figure 7 to see what happened when this level was tested.

Figure 6

Figure 7

The retracement levels and their correct usage
While there are many more Fibonacci retracement levels, the ones that you should use are as follows:

38.2%
By nature of the fact that we are looking for clusters for an entry point, the 38.2% will only be used for the long-term move. E.g. a 38.2% move for the longer term may cluster with the shorter term 50% or 61.8% level.

50%
The buy zone - look to buy 50% pullbacks of the short term move when there is a cluster of support/resistance at the same level. Granted, 50% is not actually a Fib number to the best of my knowledge. However it works well and it works often. 50% represents the point of equilibrium between buyers and sellers within a trend.

61.8%
The buy Zone - as with the 50% level, you should look to buy 61.8% pullbacks of the short term move but only when this level clusters with other support/resistance at the same point. 61.8% is known as ‘The Golden Ratio’ and is perhaps the most powerful of all Fib retracement levels.

78.6%
This level should not be used for entry. Rather your stop loss should be placed behind the short term 78.6% retracement level. The reason for this is that the further the price pulls back, the higher the probability that it is actually a reversal as compared to a retracement. Once the price pulls back over 78.6% there is a far higher probability that it will actually retrace the full 100%. Hence, a stop behind 78.6% protects your losses by having a slightly tighter stop that using the 100% level. This also results in a more favourable reward to risk ratio.

100%
This means that the full move has reversed. Use this for stops only in a situation where you would like a slightly wider stop than the 78.6% or where the 100% adds significantly to the probability of your trade. E.g. It is a major support level.

Note that we do not use the 23.6% pullback, this is simply too small a pullback for a high probability entry point.

Trading Strategy
I use one minute charts on the mini Dow future (YM) as the short term trends are clearer but it does not really matter what you use. For example I trade the same strategy on Forex with 15m charts and regularly analyse daily charts across a range of markets using the same technique. Another reason I prefer the 1m chart on the Dow is that I predominantly trade the US open from 2:30pm GMT. While you may of course look at 2, 5 or 15 minute charts, the trends will be less clear and take longer to develop once the market opens. A 1m trend becomes clear very quickly and thus suits my timeframes.

Entry
Enter at the precise point of the cluster i.e. as the price touches it. Not before and not after. Only ever trade with the direction of the overall trend.

Your confirmation is the fact that you have a strong cluster within a strong trend. Do not wait for the price to turn around at this level, by then it is too late. If you wait for the price to do what you thought it would then you have missed the trade. We are using leading indicators here to predict the move in advance.

Stop
Your stop should be placed behind the 78.6% retracement level. More conservative traders could place their stop just behind the 100% level but do not have a stop any wider than this.

Target
Your target is the old high/low or the 0% retracement level. I.e., you expect the price to retest the extreme.

A further profit target for those who prefer to scale out of trades is to use Fibonacci extension levels.

Improvements

Other technical factors to consider:

Trend Improvements

• Look for convergence and divergence between price action and indicators to assess trend strength

• Use trend following indicators such as the ADX or DMI

• Assess trends in multiple timeframes

Cluster Improvements

• Look for proven price action support and resistance at the same levels i.e. price has tested and failed at that level before

• Pivot points - a topic for another article perhaps. In my opinion pivots are the most powerful, individual technical tool at our disposal. Find a pivot at the same point as your Fib cluster and you have a VERY high probability trade. This forms the basis of what I call my Precision Trading Strategy. It also happens far more often than you may think.

There are various ways to improve upon the success of this strategy even further. There are thousands of technical tools out there and we can’t use them all but if you have something that is working for you, keep on using it. The Precision Trader philosophy is quite simple - ‘Have as many reasons as you possibly can for every single trade that you place’. The more reasons you have occurring all at the same time, the higher the probability of the trade been a success. At the end of the day that is all you need. the confidence in your strategy that you have more chance of winning than losing. And of course the ability to execute precisely according to your rules. Happy trading and best of luck for a very prosperous 2008!

—

Nick McDonald is an independent fulltime trader as well as a mentor in foreign exchange & Dow Jones futures trading strategies.

Through his company, Precision Trader, Nick aims to cut through the nonsense and teach people real trading strategies in a practical trading environment, omitting irrelevant information that is not conducive to trading successfully. Nick was the featured trader in Traders Mag in November 2008 and is a regular author for the magazine. Nick has also worked with many major brokers and their clients worldwide, passing on his trading knowledge & skills.

Please visit my website for more information.

www.tradewithprecision.com.

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Oil Market Summary from: 05/10/2010 to 05/14/2010

Crude oil prices plunged nearly 4% on Friday and were off almost 20% from their 18-month high less than two weeks ago, as the euro continued to lose ground against the dollar and U.S. oil inventories continued to build.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate contract settled at $71.61 a barrel on Friday, down $2.79 on the day, compared with $75.11 a week earlier, and the lowest price in three months. Oil prices hit an 18-month high of $87.15 on May 3.

The euro on Friday reached its lowest point against the dollar since October 2008, falling below $1.24 from just above $1.25 on the previous day. As the dollar strengthens, it puts downward pressure on oil prices.

Oil futures fell below $71 a barrel in intraday trading, and analysts now feel that prices may test the $70 threshold. OPEC has repeatedly said it would like oil prices to stay in a range of $70 to $80 a barrel, and the oil cartel might be prompted to cut production if prices fell below $70.

The buildup of inventories continued to weigh on the Nymex contract. The European benchmark, ICE’s Brent crude, which normally trades at a discount to WTI, settled at $77.18 on Friday.

The weekly inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed an increase of 1.95 million barrels in oil stocks. In Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for Nymex crude, inventories rose by 784,000 barrels to a record 37 million barrels.

The oil price decline on Friday came in spite of an increase in the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May. The index rose to 73.3 from 72.2 in April, indicating a possible pickup in demand.

Also on Friday, it was announced that U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in April, to $366.4 billion – the seventh straight month sales have risen.

Pressure on the euro continued even though European leaders last weekend agreed on a nearly $1 trillion package to back euro zone members and the European Central Bank reversed its earlier position and agreed to buy member’s government bonds to counter selling pressure in international bond markets.

While the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has seemed to have little direct effect on prices, President Barack Obama pledged on Friday that the U.S. government would review its regulatory procedures for oil companies in the wake of the accident.

Earlier in the week, the administration said it would split up the government agency responsible for offshore drilling so that supervisory and enforcement responsibilities would be separate from leasing and revenue collection.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Drop-Further-in-Week-as-Euros-Travails-Continue.html

By. Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com who offer detailed analysis on Crude oil, Geopolitics, Gold and most other Commodities. They also provide free political and economic intelligence to help investors gain a greater understanding of world events and the impact they have on certain regions and sectors. Visit: http://www.oilprice.com

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Last week was amazing for both gold and index traders as gold surged higher and the SP500 tested a key resistance then fell 4% in our favor. The past couple weeks with the mini market crash and Euro issues making the market extra volatile both gold and the broad market (SP500) index has been wild.

The added volatility makes trading more difficult because price patterns become less predictable and price movements are much larger increasing risk for traders.

Below are the charts & videos of what to look for in the coming days…

GLD – Gold ETF Trading

Gold continues to trend higher at an accelerated rate. Friday we saw gold pullback and test a key support level then bounced to close in the middle of the days trading range. As you can see the trend line support has become very steep and once the trend line support is broken I figure there will be a sharp drop to digest the recent rally.

SLV – Silver ETF Trading

Silver popped and tested a key resistance level from a previous high as expected. It also tested the top of its trend channel providing even more resistance. This week will be interesting as we wait to see if precious metals have a small pullback or continue to rally.

SPY – SP500 Index ETF Trading Chart

This chart clearly shows what I think is about to unfold by looking at the past market drop. Because of the mini market crash triggering everyone’s stops already I figure we have made the low and the dip we are seeing now will drift down a few more percentage points then bottom out

ES M0 – SP500 Mini Futures Trading Setup – Pre-Drop

Below is a chart of the SP500 which we shorted or bought the SDS bear etf trading fund last week looking to profit from a falling stock market. As you can see from the chart we saw the es mini contract drift into a key pivot point on light volume. What this means is that a large group of sellers will be waiting at that price, and because volume is light we know there are not many buyers at this price level. Simple supply/demand comes into play with more sellers causing the price to stop rising and eventually force the price lower which is what we were anticipating.

The green arrows show key support levels on the 60 minute chart where 1/3 of a position should be taken of the table to lock in gains which also reduces overall risk on the trade. Once we cash in the first 1/3 of the position we move our protective stop the breakeven which is the entry point for the remaining portion of our position. This turns the trading into a winner no matter what happens allowing us to enjoy the ride…

ES M0 – SP500 Mini Futures Trading Setup – Current Price

Here is the same chart 24 hours later showing both of our profit targets triggered pocketing 2/3rds of our position for a very nice gain. Depending on the type of trading vehicle you traded there was potential to make up to 150% return in less than 24 hours.

We currently hold 1/3 of the position left with a loose stop allowing the trade to mature incase the down trend continues for several days or weeks. If not and the price rallies then our stop will get triggered for small profit on the balance of the position. Either way we win.

Pre & Post Market Correction Video: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/sp500-market-correction-trading-videos/

Stock Market ETF and Futures Trading Conclusion:

In short, the market is trading on increased volatility making it difficult to find low risk setups. At the moment we are long gold and short the SP500 with both position deep in the money. All we can do now is manage our positions to make sure we maximize our profits.

If you would like to Get My Trading Signals be sure to check out my services at: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Most consider the father of technical analysis (the science of forecasting market movements based on price patterns) to be Charles Dow, the founder of Dow Jones and Company which publishes the Wall Street Journal. Around 1900 he wrote a series of papers which looked at the way prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Index moved. After analyzing the Indexes he outlined his belief that markets tend to move in similar ways over time. These papers, which were expanded on by other traders in the years that followed, became known as “Dow Theory”.

Although Dow Theory was written over 100 years ago most of its points are still relevant today. Dow focused on stock indexes in his writings, but the basic principles are relevant to any market.

Dow Theory is broken down into 6 basic tenets, which we take a look at below.

The first tenet of Dow Theory is that The Markets Have 3 Trends.

• Up Trends which are defined as a time when successive rallies in a security price close at levels higher than those achieved in previous rallies and when lows occur at levels higher than previous lows.

• Down Trends which are defined as when the market makes successive lower lows and lower highs.

• Corrections which are defined as a move after the market makes a move sharply in one direction where the market recedes in the opposite direction before continuing in its original direction.

To help better understand each trend lets look at an example of each:

The second tenet of Dow Theory is that Trends Have 3 Phases:

• The accumulation phase which is when the “expert” traders are actively taking positions which are against the majority of people in the market. Price does not change much during this phase as the “experts” are in the minority so they are not a large enough group to move the market.

• The public participation phase which is when the public at large catches on to what the “experts” know and begin to trade in the same direction. Rapid price change can occur during this phase as everyone piles onto one side of a trade.

• The Excess Phase where rampant speculation occurs and the “smart money” starts to exit their positions.

Here you can start to see how the psychology of investors and traders comes into play an important concept which we will delver deeper into in later lessons.

One of the best examples which shows these three phases occurring in an uptrend that most people are familiar with is the run-up up the NASDAQ into 2000:
Chart of the NASDAQ Showing the 3 Phases of a Trend:

The third tenet of Dow Theory is that The Markets Discount All News, meaning that once news is released it is quickly reflected in the price of an asset. On this point Dow Theory is in line with the efficient market hypothesis which states that:

“the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are “informationally efficient”, or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information and therefore are unbiased in the sense that they reflect the collective beliefs of all investors about future prospects.” Source: Wikipedia

This concept that the markets discount all news is one that is sited in arguments in favor of using technical analysis as a tool to profit from the markets as if it is true that markets already discount all fundamental factors then the only way to beat the market would be through technical analysis.

Tenet four of Dow Theory is that The Averages Must Confirm Each Other. The averages must confirm each other. Here Dow was referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. To understand this point it is important to remember that in Dow’s time the growth in the US was coming mainly from the Industrial sector. These two indexes were made up of manufacturing companies and the rail companies which were the primary method used to ship the manufacturers goods to market. What Dow was basically saying here is that you could not have a true rally in one of the averages without a confirmation from the other because if manufacturer’s profits were rising they would have to ship more goods. This meant that the profits of the transportation companies and therefore the transportation average should rise too. Dow stated that when these two averages moved in opposite directions it was a sign that the market was going to change direction.

Tenet five is Trends Are Confirmed by Volume. What Dow was saying here was that there are many reasons why price may move on low volume, but when prices move on high volume there is a greater chance that the move is representative of the overall market’s view. Dow believed that if many traders were participating in a particular price move and the price moves significantly in one direction, then this was an indication of a trend developing as this was the direction the market was anticipated to continue to move.

Tenet six is that Trends Exist Until Definitive Signals Prove That They Have Ended. What Dow was saying here is that there will be market moves which are against the primary trend but this does not mean that the trend is over and the market will normally resume its prior trend. There is much debate on how to best determine when a definitive signal has been given that the trend is over and this is where our study of technical analysis in future lessons will take us.

Now that you have read this article you should have a basic understanding of the background of how prices move and what market technicians look for as the foundation of their analysis.

David Warning

InformedTrades.com

David Waring is a currency analyst and community host of InformedTrades.com, an online community for traders of the world’s financial markets.

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The Andrews Pitchfork is yet another one of my “secondary” trading tools. My “primary” trading tools include basic trend lines and chart patterns, trader psychology and fundamental analysis. I use the secondary trading tools to help confirm what my primary trading tools may be telling me.

The Andrews Pitchfork is a trend-line study developed by Dr. Alan Andrews a few decades ago. It is also called the Median Line Study. It consists of three parallel trend lines drawn on a chart. The lines resemble a farmer’s pitchfork. The upper and lower lines of the pitchfork provide a channel of support and resistance levels. Basically, you wait for a significant “correction” from an overall price trend, and then measure that correction and draw and project trend lines from it.

Remember that trend lines can be applied to all markets in all time frames. An uptrend finds prices bouncing up off the supporting uptrend line. A downtrend finds prices bouncing down off its resisting downtrend line. In an uptrend, the trend line provides a potential buying point at each potential bounce. If the market is still trending higher (meaning the uptrend line has not been negated), then there is no signal given as to when to sell.But by drawing parallel lines to the trend line (as in the Andrews Pitchfork study), a channel can be created which contains short-term rallies and declines within the general trend. The bottom trend line can be used to buy into the rally and the top trend line can be used to take short-term profits. After selling, the trader would then wait for the market to hit the bottom trend line to buy again. This is very similar to the “swing trading” method about which I have written.

With the Andrews Pitchfork technical study, a trader will pick an extreme low or high on a chart to define a “pivot point” and then draw a trend line, called the median line. Then the trader bisects a line drawn through the next corrective phase on the chart that occurs after the pivot point. Lines parallel to the median line are drawn through the high and low points of the corrective phase, hence the look of a pitchfork

Pitchforks can also help identify trading channels before simple parallel trend lines can be drawn. By using an already established market move (correction) as the width of the channel, the median and parallel lines can be constructed, giving the trader early targets for short-term trading within the new trend. These market retracements generally occur at Fibonacci levels, so a pitchfork can almost be considered to be Fibonacci lines on an angle.

The double channels of the Andrew’s Pitchfork serve to identify a longer-term trend at the same time as the shorter-term trend. As long as counter-trend moves are smaller than the overall channel width, the primary trend will remain intact. Trading from one end of the channel to the other may present short-term trading opportunities. But breakouts from the overall channel may indicate true trend changes. The latter should be combined with simple trend line analysis for a more reliable signal.

Dr. Andrews’ rules state that the market will do one of two things as it approaches the Median Line: 1. Prices will reverse at the Median Line. 2. Prices will trade through the Median Line and head for the upper or lower parallel lines and then reverse. He suggested that prices make it to the median line about 80% of the time while the price trend is in place. This means that while the basic long-term price trend remains intact, Andrews believed that the smaller trends in price would gravitate toward the median line while the larger price trend remained in tact. Importantly, when that does not occur, it may be evidence that a reversal in the larger price trend may be under way.

When prices fail to make it to the median line from either side, it is often an expression of the relative bullish or bearish psychology of buyers and sellers, and may predict the next major direction of prices. If prices fail to reach the median line while above the median line, it is a bullish signal. If prices fail to reach the median line from below that line, then that is a bearish signal.
Drawing the parallel lines can often be more subjective because most of the time markets do not trade up and down in neat channels. There often is “market noise” and overlapping short- and long-term cycles that make trading appear irregular. To better measure a trading channel, the Andrews Pitchfork can help by building it around real, objective market activity that is a counter­trend move (retracement or correction).

Just like with horizontal support and resistance levels, markets trade within one range and then move to another, similar range and back again. The Andrews Pitchfork measures a larger trading channel. It is common for a market to trade in the lower end of channel and then jump to the upper end and then move back to the lower end. During all of this activity, the general trend is still intact. When prices move outside of the larger channel, the overall market trend may have changed.

Jim Wyckoff,
Senior Analyst
TraderPlanet.com

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